2023年4月19日 星期三

"2034" by Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis (2021)


"He did, however, feel a small surge of satisfaction that the complex mix of cyber cloaking, stealth materials, and satellite spoofing had kept his fleet well hidden. While the Americans surely suspected them of heading for the vicinity of Chinese Taipei, their old adversary had been unable to develop the precise targeting data required for a counter-maneuver. Eventually, the Americans would find them. But by then it would be too late."

Elliot Ackerman served in the Marine Corps for eight years, after which time he became a White House Fellow and then embarked on a career in writing.  James Stavridis is a retired U.S. Navy admiral who's also written several books.  I'm new to both authors, but judging by what I've seen online 2034 is the best known book either author has written thus far.

In 2034 the Chinese and U.S. navies finally confront one another after an altercation in the South China Sea.  The U.S. Navy, discovering a Chinese ship in distress, find themselves under attack soon after, and from that point on the conflict escalates to include both the use of nuclear weapons and the invasion of Taiwan.

As this kind of book goes 2034 isn't bad.  It's written with a certain succinctness, the characters are consistent, their motivations are clear, and the story builds to a gratifying conclusion.  What disappointed me about 2034, however, is its lack of detail.  Considering the careers of its two authors, you'd think that this book would be crammed with military details, but what it offers instead is a fairly bare bones story leading to (or almost leading to) World War III.

Another, minor complaint I have is that this book allows itself two "miracle exemptions."  One of these exemptions, in the form of a Chinese superweapon, would have been acceptable, but adding to this another exemption, in the form of a "third force" which miraculously appears near the end of the novel, is stretching things a bit too far.  Either exemption on its own would have been fine, but having both present in the same narrative strains its credibility.

If you're looking for a lighter tale of near-apocalypse I'd recommend this book.  I got through it relatively quickly, and I never had any trouble figuring out what was going on.  This said, those looking for a deeper, more believable dive into East Asian geopolitics will be disappointed by it.  The authors, I think -- or at least the editor -- could have offered us something more substantive.

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2023年4月6日 星期四

"The Third Pillar" by Raghuram Rajan (2019)


"The pillars are seriously unbalanced today. Communities have been especially impacted. In the United States, minority and immigrant communities were hit first by joblessness, which led to their social breakdown in the 1970s and 1980s. In the last two decades, communities in small towns and semirural areas, typically white, have been experiencing a similar decline as large local manufacturers close down..."

Raghuram Rajan is a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago. He's also served as Governor of the Reserve Bank of India and Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. The Third Pillar is his fourth book.

And what, you ask, is this "third pillar?"  The "third pillar" is the community or communities we live in, which collectively make up the social landscape in which we live our lives.  The other two pillars are government and the market.  In the author's thinking many of the world's problems are reducible to an imbalance between the three pillars, with the government or the market often overwhelming the community's role in the individual's life.

For this reason the author sees strengthening the community as central to improving circumstances in a variety of national and international contexts.  Democracy, in other words, in its most participatory form.  Related to this idea is his concept of inclusive localism, in which communities interact and effect change within both the government and the market, resulting in better outcomes for those involved.

But.. how to get there from here?  Few would argue against the author's conceptions of the three pillars and inclusive localism, but it is the application of these ideas that poses the real problem.  The Third Pillar ranges from India, to the United States, to China, and along the way the author arrives at some arresting conclusions, many of which make one feel that we could be on the brink of change, but when you think downward to real places and real communities you can't help but wonder at the mechanics of bringing those communities to the forefront of daily existence, and how the various dysfunctions present in these communities can be separated from what, if anything, makes them work.

I would encourage anyone looking for a pair of fresh eyes on national and international relations to read The Third Pillar, but don't expect a clear roadmap to the future.  This book could be called a beginning, but we're far from a practical start with respect to fixing what's wrong with our societies, our governments and our economies.

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